The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has projected
that the 2025 rainy season will span between 250 and 290 days in Lagos, Delta,
Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers, and Akwa Ibom states.
The projection was contained in NiMet’s 2025 Seasonal
Climate Prediction (SCP) released on Monday.
NiMet said the inland states in the south, including Ogun,
Oyo, Ekiti, Osun, Ebonyi, Anambra, and Enugu will experience between 200 and
250 days of rainfall.
In the central region, the rainy season is expected to last
150 to 200 days, while states in the north, including Sokoto, Katsina, Zamfara,
Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, and Borno will see between 110 and 150 days of rain.
NiMet noted that while most parts of the country would
experience normal rainy season span, areas in Borno, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa,
Kogi, Niger, and Ondo may witness below-normal durations.
In contrast, Lagos and parts of Nasarawa are projected to
have an extended rainy season.
RAINFALL OUTLOOK
According to the report, the total annual rainfall in
Nigeria is expected to range from 405 mm in the far north to 3010 mm in the
coastal regions.
“It is predicted that the annual rainfall total in Borno,
Yobe, Sokoto, and Katsina states are likely to be less than 685 mm. Rainfall in
the central states (parts of Niger, Kwara, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue states, and
the FCT) is expected to range from 970 mm to 1500 mm,” the report reads.
“It is projected that Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Akwa
Ibom states will have between 2700 mm and 3010 mm of annual rainfall total.”
NiMet said the rainfall amounts across the country are
expected to oscillate between normal to below normal when juxtaposed with
historical averages.
However, parts of Kaduna, Ebonyi, Cross River, Lagos, Abia,
Akwa Ibom, and the FCT will likely have above-normal annual rainfall amounts.
RAINFALL ONSET AND
CESSATION
The 2025 SCP, based on a neutral El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) phase, anticipates the earliest rainfall onset in Bayelsa,
Rivers, Akwa Ibom, and parts of Delta between February 23 and March 10.
Rainfall is expected to begin between March and April in
southern states like Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti, and Enugu… and between April and May
in central states such as Niger, Kogi, the FCT, and Taraba.
Northern states will likely see rain onset between early
June and July.
NiMet said early onset is expected in the south and parts of
the middle belt, while delays are projected in Plateau, Kaduna, Niger, Benue,
and other central and north-eastern states.
It said the rainy season is predicted to end between October
6 and December 17.
“It is expected that over the northern parts of the country
the end of from the first week of October until late October and progress
southwards, reaching the central states in early November and ending in
mid-December in the southmost coastal states,” the report reads.
“The earliest cessation date of the rainy season in the
country is anticipated to be about 6th October 2025. This is expected in parts
of Sokoto, Zamfara, and Katsina states.
“Other northern states of Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, Bauchi, Borno,
Kebbi, Kaduna, Niger, Gombe, and Adamawa will experience the cessation of the
rainy season from around 14th October to 30th October.”
Early cessation is projected for parts of Zamfara, Kano,
Jigawa, and the FCT, while delayed cessation may occur in Lagos, Oyo, Ogun, and
parts of Cross River, Delta, and Taraba.
DRY SPELLS AND LITTLE
DRY SEASON
NiMet warned of potential dry spells in parts of the
country. In Oyo, a severe dry spell of more than 15 days is expected after the
rains begin.
“In the April-May-June season, there is a likelihood of a
severe dry spell of above 15 days after the establishment of rainfall in Oyo
state (Saki, Iseyin, Ogbomosho, Atisbo, Orelope, Itesiwaju, Olorunsogo, Kajola,
Iwajowa and Ori Ire),” the report reads.
Moderate dry spells, lasting up to 15 days, are also
projected in Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, Ogun, Edo, Ebonyi, Anambra, Imo, Abia, Cross
River, Delta, Bayelsa, and Akwa Ibom states.
The agency added that northern states are expected to
experience severe dry spells of up to 21 days during the June to August season.
The Little Dry Season (LDS), which typically occurs in July,
is forecast to be severe in Lagos and Oyo, with dry days ranging between 27 and
40.
“It is predicted that the Little Dry Season for 2025 across
the southwest is likely to set in by July 22nd, 2025. Moderate LDS effect is
expected over Ogun, Oyo, and Ekiti states. Osun, Oyo, Kwara, and parts of Ondo
north are likely to experience light or mild Little Dry Season this year,” the
report added.
